A pandemic influenza simulation model for preparedness planning

Ozgur M. Araz, John W. Fowler, Tim W. Lant, Megan Jehn

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

13 Scopus citations


Pandemic influenza continues to be a national and international public health concern that has received significant attention recently with the recent swine flu outbreak worldwide. Many countries have developed and updated their preparedness plans for pandemic influenza. School closure has been recommended as one of the best ways to protect children and indeed all susceptible individuals in a community during a possible disease outbreak. In this paper, we present a geospatial and temporal disease spread model for pandemic influenza affecting multiple communities. School closure, one of the social distancing policies, is investigated in this paper with several questions such as: at what level should schools be closed, for how long should they be kept closed, and how should be the re-opening decisions made. These questions are considered in terms of minimizing: the total infection cases, total mortalities, and the impact on educational services to school children.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 2009 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2009
Number of pages10
StatePublished - 2009
Externally publishedYes
Event2009 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2009 - Austin, TX, United States
Duration: Dec 13 2009Dec 16 2009

Publication series

NameProceedings - Winter Simulation Conference
ISSN (Print)0891-7736


Conference2009 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2009
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityAustin, TX

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Software
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Computer Science Applications


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