Agricultural water security and instream flows for endangered species

We analyze the potential effects of listing threatened salmonid species on landowner behavior using parcel-level data from Sonoma County, California. We estimate a bivariate probit model, representing the landowner's joint decision on land use and water management during the period 1973-2006, both before and after listing. Our results indicate that after listing, vineyard development with on-site reservoirs became significantly less likely, particularly in upland watersheds with seasonal streams. This interseasonal shift from stored surface water in winter toward groundwater or direct diversion in summer may lead to negative unintended consequences on summer flows needed for juvenile fish survivorship.