Assessment of reoffense risk in adolescents who have committed sexual offenses: Predictive validity of the ERASOR, PCL:YV, YLS/CMI, and Static-99

Clinicians are often asked to assess the likelihood that an adolescent who has committed a sexual offense will reoffend. However, there is limited research on the predictive validity of available assessment tools. To help address this gap, this study examined the ability of the Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism (ERASOR), the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI), the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV), and the Static-99 to predict reoffending in a sample of 193 adolescents. Youth were followed for an average of 7.24 years after discharge from a residential sex offender treatment program. Although none of the instruments significantly predicted detected cases of sexual reoffending, ERASOR's structured professional judgments nearly reached significance (p = .069). Both the YLS/CMI and the PCL:YV predicted nonsexual violence, any violence, and any offending; however, the YLS/CMI demonstrated incremental validity over the PCL:YV. Although the Static-99 has considerable support with adult sex offenders, it did not predict sexual or general reoffending in the present sample of adolescents.