Development and internal validation of a clinical and genetic risk score for rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease

Objective: Although clinical and genetic risk factors have been identified for rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease (RA-ILD), there are no current tools allowing for risk stratification. We sought to develop and validate an ILD risk model in a large, multicentre, prospective RA cohort. Methods: Participants in the Veterans Affairs RA (VARA) registry were genotyped for 12 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. ILD was validated through systematic record review. A genetic risk score (GRS) was computed from minor alleles weighted by effect size with ILD, using backward selection. The GRS was combined with clinical risk factors within a logistic regression model. Internal validation was completed using bootstrapping, and model performance was assessed by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Results: Of 2386 participants (89% male, mean age 69.5 years), 9.4% had ILD. Following backward selection, five SNPs contributed to the GRS. The GRS and clinical factors outperformed clinical factors alone in discriminating ILD (AUC 0.675 vs 0.635, P < 0.001). The shrinkage-corrected performance for combined and clinical-only models was 0.667 (95% CI 0.628, 0.712) and 0.623 (95% CI 0.584, 0.651), respectively. Twenty percent of the cohort had a combined risk score below a cut-point with >90% sensitivity. Conclusion: A clinical and genetic risk model discriminated ILD in a large, multicentre RA cohort better than a clinical-only model, excluding 20% of the cohort from low-yield testing. These results demonstrate the potential utility of a GRS in RA-ILD and support further investigation into individualized risk stratification and screening.