TY - JOUR
T1 - Development and validation of a risk calculator for prediction of mortality after infrainguinal bypass surgery
AU - Gupta, Prateek K.
AU - Ramanan, Bala
AU - Lynch, Thomas G.
AU - Sundaram, Abhishek
AU - MacTaggart, Jason N.
AU - Gupta, Himani
AU - Fang, Xiang
AU - Pipinos, Iraklis I.
N1 - Funding Information:
This study was supported in part by the National Institutes of Health grant R01-AG034995 and the William J. von Liebig Award by the American Vascular Association.
PY - 2012/8
Y1 - 2012/8
N2 - Objective: For peripheral arterial disease, infrainguinal bypass grafting (BPG) carries a higher perioperative risk compared with peripheral endovascular procedures. The choice between the open and endovascular therapies is to an extent dependent on the expected periprocedural risk associated with each. Tools for estimating the periprocedural risk in patients undergoing BPG have not been reported in the literature. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a calculator to estimate the risk of perioperative mortality ≤30 days of elective BPG. Methods: We identified 9556 patients (63.9% men) who underwent elective BPG from the 2007 to 2009 National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data sets. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors associated with 30-day perioperative mortality. Bootstrapping was used for internal validation. The risk factors were subsequently used to develop a risk calculator. Results: Patients had a median age of 68 years. The 30-day mortality rate was 1.8% (n = 170). Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified seven preoperative predictors of 30-day mortality: increasing age, systemic inflammatory response syndrome, chronic corticosteroid use, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dependent functional status, dialysis dependence, and lower extremity rest pain. Bootstrapping was used for internal validation. The model demonstrated excellent discrimination (C statistic, 0.81; bias-corrected C statistic, 0.81) and calibration. The validated risk model was used to develop an interactive risk calculator using the logistic regression equation. Conclusions: The validated risk calculator has excellent predictive ability for 30-day mortality in a patient after an elective BPG. It is anticipated to aid in surgical decision making, informed patient consent, preoperative optimization, and consequently, risk reduction.
AB - Objective: For peripheral arterial disease, infrainguinal bypass grafting (BPG) carries a higher perioperative risk compared with peripheral endovascular procedures. The choice between the open and endovascular therapies is to an extent dependent on the expected periprocedural risk associated with each. Tools for estimating the periprocedural risk in patients undergoing BPG have not been reported in the literature. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a calculator to estimate the risk of perioperative mortality ≤30 days of elective BPG. Methods: We identified 9556 patients (63.9% men) who underwent elective BPG from the 2007 to 2009 National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data sets. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors associated with 30-day perioperative mortality. Bootstrapping was used for internal validation. The risk factors were subsequently used to develop a risk calculator. Results: Patients had a median age of 68 years. The 30-day mortality rate was 1.8% (n = 170). Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified seven preoperative predictors of 30-day mortality: increasing age, systemic inflammatory response syndrome, chronic corticosteroid use, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dependent functional status, dialysis dependence, and lower extremity rest pain. Bootstrapping was used for internal validation. The model demonstrated excellent discrimination (C statistic, 0.81; bias-corrected C statistic, 0.81) and calibration. The validated risk model was used to develop an interactive risk calculator using the logistic regression equation. Conclusions: The validated risk calculator has excellent predictive ability for 30-day mortality in a patient after an elective BPG. It is anticipated to aid in surgical decision making, informed patient consent, preoperative optimization, and consequently, risk reduction.
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U2 - 10.1016/j.jvs.2012.01.042
DO - 10.1016/j.jvs.2012.01.042
M3 - Article
C2 - 22632800
AN - SCOPUS:84864423459
SN - 0741-5214
VL - 56
SP - 372-379.e1
JO - Journal of vascular surgery
JF - Journal of vascular surgery
IS - 2
ER -