TY - JOUR
T1 - Drought hazard assessment in the context of climate change for South Korea
AU - Nam, Won Ho
AU - Hayes, Michael J.
AU - Svoboda, Mark D.
AU - Tadesse, Tsegaye
AU - Wilhite, Donald A.
N1 - Funding Information:
This research was supported by the Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) and was funded by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology ( 2013R1A6A3A03019009 ). The authors are also grateful for the financial support provided by NASA grant number NNX14AD30G . The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of NRF, NASA or any of its sub-agencies. The authors would also like to thank Deborah Wood for her editing expertise. Finally, the authors would like to thank the editor, special journal editors, and anonymous reviewers who took the time to review and provide guidance on this paper.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2015/10/1
Y1 - 2015/10/1
N2 - Drought has had large impacts on economies, societies and the environment, and could become even more disruptive given the context of climate change characterized by increasing temperature and more variable and extreme precipitation. Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of droughts will have enormous impacts on the hydrological cycle, water management and agricultural production. Therefore, one major concern arising from climate change is its potential effects on water resources. Although South Korea has been experiencing serious drought and water scarcity issues in recent years, preparedness for potential changes in the frequency, severity and duration of drought disasters due to climate change effects has received only limited attention. It is important to detect changes in temporal trends of drought at the regional scale. This information will aid understanding the impacts of climate change and its subsequent effects on hydrology and agriculture. In this paper, we have addressed the question of how climate change might influence the impact of drought hazard by estimating the potential changes in temporal trends of drought in South Korea. We have assessed the temporal trends of future drought with drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index [SPI], Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index [SPEI], and Self-Calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index [SC-PDSI]) using past observed data (1981-2010) from 54 meteorological stations maintained by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and projected climate change scenarios (2011-2100) as depicted by the Representative Concentration Pathways models (RCPs). The drought hazard assessment was quantitatively evaluated by analyzing drought frequency, duration, severity and magnitude using the run theory method based on different timescales of the drought indices. The results demonstrated a significant increase of potential drought impacts in the future. Additionally, significant increases in the drought magnitude and severity were found at different time scales for each drought indicator. The results indicated that the temporal pattern of potential drought progression and recession across South Korea can be used for the development of proactive drought risk management and mitigation strategies.
AB - Drought has had large impacts on economies, societies and the environment, and could become even more disruptive given the context of climate change characterized by increasing temperature and more variable and extreme precipitation. Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of droughts will have enormous impacts on the hydrological cycle, water management and agricultural production. Therefore, one major concern arising from climate change is its potential effects on water resources. Although South Korea has been experiencing serious drought and water scarcity issues in recent years, preparedness for potential changes in the frequency, severity and duration of drought disasters due to climate change effects has received only limited attention. It is important to detect changes in temporal trends of drought at the regional scale. This information will aid understanding the impacts of climate change and its subsequent effects on hydrology and agriculture. In this paper, we have addressed the question of how climate change might influence the impact of drought hazard by estimating the potential changes in temporal trends of drought in South Korea. We have assessed the temporal trends of future drought with drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index [SPI], Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index [SPEI], and Self-Calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index [SC-PDSI]) using past observed data (1981-2010) from 54 meteorological stations maintained by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and projected climate change scenarios (2011-2100) as depicted by the Representative Concentration Pathways models (RCPs). The drought hazard assessment was quantitatively evaluated by analyzing drought frequency, duration, severity and magnitude using the run theory method based on different timescales of the drought indices. The results demonstrated a significant increase of potential drought impacts in the future. Additionally, significant increases in the drought magnitude and severity were found at different time scales for each drought indicator. The results indicated that the temporal pattern of potential drought progression and recession across South Korea can be used for the development of proactive drought risk management and mitigation strategies.
KW - Climate change
KW - Drought characteristics
KW - Drought hazard
KW - Drought indices
KW - Global climate model
KW - South Korea
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84937564462&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84937564462&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.agwat.2015.06.029
DO - 10.1016/j.agwat.2015.06.029
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84937564462
SN - 0378-3774
VL - 160
SP - 106
EP - 117
JO - Agricultural Water Management
JF - Agricultural Water Management
ER -