@article{23580953212247d3a46dcf3d1e1c0ab0,
title = "Evolutionary history predicts high-impact invasions by herbivorous insects",
abstract = "A long-standing goal of invasion biology is to identify factors driving highly variable impacts of non-native species. Although hypotheses exist that emphasize the role of evolutionary history (e.g., enemy release hypothesis & defense-free space hypothesis), predicting the impact of non-native herbivorous insects has eluded scientists for over a century. Using a census of all 58 non-native conifer-specialist insects in North America, we quantified the contribution of over 25 factors that could affect the impact they have on their novel hosts, including insect traits (fecundity, voltinism, native range, etc.), host traits (shade tolerance, growth rate, wood density, etc.), and evolutionary relationships (between native and novel hosts and insects). We discovered that divergence times between native and novel hosts, the shade and drought tolerance of the novel host, and the presence of a coevolved congener on a shared host, were more predictive of impact than the traits of the invading insect. These factors built upon each other to strengthen our ability to predict the risk of a non-native insect becoming invasive. This research is the first to empirically support historically assumed hypotheses about the importance of evolutionary history as a major driver of impact of non-native herbivorous insects. Our novel, integrated model predicts whether a non-native insect not yet present in North America will have a one in 6.5 to a one in 2,858 chance of causing widespread mortality of a conifer species if established (R2 = 0.91) Synthesis and applications. With this advancement, the risk to other conifer host species and regions can be assessed, and regulatory and pest management efforts can be more efficiently prioritized.",
keywords = "evolutionary history, herbivore, invasive insect, non-native species, risk assessment",
author = "Mech, {Angela M.} and Thomas, {Kathryn A.} and Marsico, {Travis D.} and Herms, {Daniel A.} and Allen, {Craig R.} and Ayres, {Matthew P.} and Gandhi, {Kamal J.K.} and Jessica Gurevitch and Havill, {Nathan P.} and Hufbauer, {Ruth A.} and Liebhold, {Andrew M.} and Raffa, {Kenneth F.} and Schulz, {Ashley N.} and Uden, {Daniel R.} and Tobin, {Patrick C.}",
note = "Funding Information: Funding information This project was conducted as a part of the “Predicting the next high-impact insect invasion: Elucidating traits and factors determining the risk of introduced herbivorous insects on North American native plants” working group supported by the John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis, funded by the U.S. Geological Survey (to KAT, TDM, DAH, and PCT, and Cooperative Agreement No. G16AC00065 to PCT). Additional support was provided by the Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Washington, USDA Forest Service Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment (Grant No. 15-JV-11242303-103 to PCT), the National Science Foundation LTER program (MPA), the USDA Forest Service International Programs (MPA and AML), and the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture (Hatch project 1012868 to RAH). The Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit are jointly supported by a cooperative agreement between the U.S. Geological Survey, the Nebraska Game and Parks Commission, the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the Wildlife Management Institute. Any use of trade names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. We thank Andrew Leslie (Brown University) for providing conifer divergence time data and Constance Lin, Jake Betzen, and David Campbell (University of Washington) for data and website assistance. We appreciate the feedback from Frank Koch (USDA Forest Service) whose comments guided us to improve our contribution. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.",
year = "2019",
month = nov,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1002/ece3.5709",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "9",
pages = "12216--12230",
journal = "Ecology and Evolution",
issn = "2045-7758",
publisher = "John Wiley and Sons Ltd",
number = "21",
}