Foot-and-mouth disease and the Mexican cattle industry

Lia Nogueira, Thomas L. Marsh, Peter R. Tozer, Derrell Peel

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

12 Scopus citations


The objective of this article is to analyze the domestic and international effects of a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the Mexican cattle industry. A discrete time dynamic optimization model of the Mexican cattle sector is specified, and linked to domestic and international markets. Economic consequences of FMD outbreaks are simulated over time and under different scenarios. Specific findings and general policy recommendations are provided. The study reports a range of outbreaks from localized to large scale and suggests that changes in economic surplus due to FMD range from a positive net gain of $0.89 to $1.6 billion to a net loss of about $67 billion, depending on the specific mitigation strategy and outbreak scenario.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)33-44
Number of pages12
JournalAgricultural Economics
Issue numberSUPPL. 1
StatePublished - Nov 2011
Externally publishedYes


  • Cattle production
  • Cattle trade
  • Foot-and-mouth disease
  • Invasive species
  • México
  • Welfare effects

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agronomy and Crop Science
  • Economics and Econometrics


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