Forecasting Presidential Nominations in 2016: #WePredictedClintonANDTrump

Andrew J. Dowdle, Randall E. Adkins, Karen Sebold, Jarred Cuellar

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

6 Scopus citations


A number of scholars successfully modeled and predicted presidential nomination outcomes from 1996-2008. However, dramatic changes occurred in subsequent years that would seem to make replicating these results challenging at best. Building on those earlier studies, we utilize a series of OLS models that included measures of preprimary resources and early campaign successes or failures to forecast that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump would win the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations in 2016. This outcome suggests that some fundamental factors governing nomination outcomes have not changed despite the conventional wisdom.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)691-695
Number of pages5
JournalPS - Political Science and Politics
Issue number4
StatePublished - Oct 1 2016

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Sociology and Political Science


Dive into the research topics of 'Forecasting Presidential Nominations in 2016: #WePredictedClintonANDTrump'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this