Forecasting Presidential Nominations in 2016: #WePredictedClintonANDTrump

Andrew J. Dowdle; Randall E. Adkins; Karen Sebold; Jarred Cuellar

doi:10.1017/S1049096516001384

Forecasting Presidential Nominations in 2016: #WePredictedClintonANDTrump

Andrew J. Dowdle, Randall E. Adkins, Karen Sebold, Jarred Cuellar

Political Science

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

8 Scopus citations

Abstract

A number of scholars successfully modeled and predicted presidential nomination outcomes from 1996-2008. However, dramatic changes occurred in subsequent years that would seem to make replicating these results challenging at best. Building on those earlier studies, we utilize a series of OLS models that included measures of preprimary resources and early campaign successes or failures to forecast that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump would win the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations in 2016. This outcome suggests that some fundamental factors governing nomination outcomes have not changed despite the conventional wisdom.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	691-695
Number of pages	5
Journal	PS - Political Science and Politics
Volume	49
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096516001384
State	Published - Oct 1 2016

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Sociology and Political Science

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10.1017/S1049096516001384

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title = "Forecasting Presidential Nominations in 2016: #WePredictedClintonANDTrump",

abstract = "A number of scholars successfully modeled and predicted presidential nomination outcomes from 1996-2008. However, dramatic changes occurred in subsequent years that would seem to make replicating these results challenging at best. Building on those earlier studies, we utilize a series of OLS models that included measures of preprimary resources and early campaign successes or failures to forecast that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump would win the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations in 2016. This outcome suggests that some fundamental factors governing nomination outcomes have not changed despite the conventional wisdom.",

author = "Dowdle, {Andrew J.} and Adkins, {Randall E.} and Karen Sebold and Jarred Cuellar",

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AU - Adkins, Randall E.

AU - Sebold, Karen

AU - Cuellar, Jarred

PY - 2016/10/1

Y1 - 2016/10/1

N2 - A number of scholars successfully modeled and predicted presidential nomination outcomes from 1996-2008. However, dramatic changes occurred in subsequent years that would seem to make replicating these results challenging at best. Building on those earlier studies, we utilize a series of OLS models that included measures of preprimary resources and early campaign successes or failures to forecast that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump would win the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations in 2016. This outcome suggests that some fundamental factors governing nomination outcomes have not changed despite the conventional wisdom.

AB - A number of scholars successfully modeled and predicted presidential nomination outcomes from 1996-2008. However, dramatic changes occurred in subsequent years that would seem to make replicating these results challenging at best. Building on those earlier studies, we utilize a series of OLS models that included measures of preprimary resources and early campaign successes or failures to forecast that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump would win the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations in 2016. This outcome suggests that some fundamental factors governing nomination outcomes have not changed despite the conventional wisdom.

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Forecasting Presidential Nominations in 2016: #WePredictedClintonANDTrump

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