Predicting corridor travel time reliability in real time using bluetooth data

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

Short-term prediction is very important for real-time traveler information systems. While many current applications provide mean travel times, not many provide reliability metrics such as travel time reliability. In addition, the mean corridor or route travel time is usually estimated by simply summing link travel time means, which does not account for the correlation between link travel times. To address these two issues, this paper studies corridor travel time reliability prediction at a 15-minute level under various traffic conditions using real-time Bluetooth travel time data. This data is reduced to both link-based and corridor-based travel time formats. Prediction models for corridor travel time reliability, using link travel times and corridor travel times, are developed and compared. The nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) Model was found to be the best approach because the predicted reliability intervals of arrival time were the most accurate. The link-based NARX model was found to yield comparable results to the corridor-based NARX model.

Original languageEnglish (US)
StatePublished - 2014
Event21st World Congress on Intelligent Transport Systems: Reinventing Transportation in Our Connected World, ITSWC 2014 - Detroit, United States
Duration: Sep 7 2014Sep 11 2014

Other

Other21st World Congress on Intelligent Transport Systems: Reinventing Transportation in Our Connected World, ITSWC 2014
CountryUnited States
CityDetroit
Period9/7/149/11/14

Keywords

  • Bluetooth data
  • Nonlinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous inputs model (NARX)
  • Real-time prediction
  • Travel time reliability

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Control and Systems Engineering
  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Automotive Engineering
  • Transportation
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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  • Cite this

    Wu, Z., & Rilett, L. R. (2014). Predicting corridor travel time reliability in real time using bluetooth data. Paper presented at 21st World Congress on Intelligent Transport Systems: Reinventing Transportation in Our Connected World, ITSWC 2014, Detroit, United States.