Prediction model for the incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence: Evidence for a cohort-dependent increase within the next two decades in Germany

Stefan Ehehalt, Klaus Dietz, Andre Manfred Willasch, Andreas Neu, A. Böckmann, U. Brand, C. Döring, R. Dürr, D. Ecker, F. Eichmeier, U. Elpel, U. Faller, M. Fedorcak, L. Feldhahn, G. Fitzke, J. Grulich-Henn, M. Holder, D. Jantzen, M. Kelle, K. KettelerM. Krüger, B. Lippmann-Grob, E. Müller, U. Radlow, U. Rappen, A. Ruland, R. Sauter, G. Schädel, A. Schumacher, U. Schürmann, K. O. Schwab, F. K. Trefz, A. Veigel, M. Wabitsch, J. Wissert

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

43 Scopus citations

Abstract

Objective: To provide data on type 1 diabetes (T1D) epidemiology in childhood over a period of 20 years and to predict prevalence and cohort-age-specific incidence rates (IRs) for the next two decades in Germany. Methods: The Baden-Wuerttemberg Diabetes Incidence Registry (DIARY) includes children and adolescents below 15 years of age with new onset of T1D (period 1987-2006, n = 5108 cases). Results: The mean age- and sex-standardized IR was 15.3/100 000/year (95% CI 14.8-15.7) and the average increase in the IR was 4.4% per year (95% CI 3.9-4.9). Within the next 20 years (2007-2026), the risk for developing diabetes will increase like the square of a linear function with calendar year for all age ranges. There is a strong correlation between the predicted IRs of the cohorts and the observed IRs (n = 300; root mean square error = 0.56; r 2 = 0.71) and a negative correlation between mean age at onset and T1D IR (p = 0.02). On 31 December 2006, the prevalence of T1D was 0.126% (95% CI 0.121-0.132). The predicted prevalence (end of 2026) is estimated to be 0.265% (95% CI 0.25-0.28; predicted cases: n = 2950; 95% CI 2900-3000). Conclusions: In comparison to observations made in the past, the risk of disease rises even faster than expected: The younger the child, the quicker the increase of the cohort-age-specific IR and the higher the risk for T1D during lifetime.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)15-20
Number of pages6
JournalPediatric Diabetes
Volume13
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 2012
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Children
  • Cohort-age-specific incidence
  • Epidemiology
  • Germany
  • Lexis diagram
  • Type 1 diabetes mellitus

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Internal Medicine
  • Pediatrics, Perinatology, and Child Health
  • Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism

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