Predictive global trends in the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer based on geographic location, socio-economic status, and demographic shift

Chandrakanth Are, Sanjib Chowdhury, Humera Ahmad, Advaitaa Ravipati, Tianqiang Song, Shailesh Shrikandhe, Lynette Smith

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

31 Scopus citations

Abstract

Background and Objectives: Pancreatic Cancer (PC) is a lethal malignancy that accounts for about 4% of cancer-related deaths worldwide. The aim of this study is to describe the influence of geography (based on WHO regions), socio-economic development (based on Human Development Index [HDI]) and demographic shift on the temporal trends in global incidence and mortality of PC. Methods: Data (2012–2030) relating to the incidence, mortality of PC and demographic shifts based on WHO regions and HDI areas were extracted from GLOBOCAN 2012. Linear regression was used to evaluate trends in total incidence and mortality. Results: We noted a definite association between PC and higher socio-economic status. Advanced age (age ≥65) contributed to the rising burden in all socio-economic regions of the world except in the Low Human Development (LHD) countries where the disease predominantly affected population <65 years of age. Conclusions: The global burden of PC is expected to rise significantly over the next few decades regardless of geographic location, socio-economic development, age and gender. Advance knowledge of this data can help formulate strategies to specifically target countries and populations that promote public health policy to tackle this lethal disease on the global stage. J. Surg. Oncol. 2016;114:736–742.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)736-742
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of Surgical Oncology
Volume114
Issue number6
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 1 2016

Keywords

  • Human Development Index (HDI)
  • WHO regions
  • demographic shift
  • global pancreatic cancer burden
  • predictive trends based on GLOBOCAN 2012 database

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Surgery
  • Oncology

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