Predictors of Cognitive Change in Older Persons: MacArthur Studies of Successful Aging

Marilyn S. Albert, Kenneth Jones, Cary R. Savage, Lisa Berkman, Teresa Seeman, Dan Blazer, John W. Rowe

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

469 Scopus citations


This study used a linear structural relations modeling technique (LISREL) to examine longitudinal data for 1,192 persons from a community-based population. The goal was to test the ability of an a priori model to predict cognitive change over a 2.0- to 2.5-year period in older adults aged 70-79 at the initial evaluation. The model included 22 demographic, physical, and psychosocial variables as predictors of cognitive function and cognitive change. The study used an exploratory-confirmatory design, enabling cross-validation of the model developed in the exploratory set in the confirmatory sample. Structural equation modeling analyses identified 4 endogenous model variables (education, strenuous activity, peak pulmonary expiratory flow rate, and self-efficacy) as direct predictors of cognitive change over the study period.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)578-589
Number of pages12
JournalPsychology and aging
Issue number4
StatePublished - Dec 1995
Externally publishedYes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Social Psychology
  • Aging
  • Geriatrics and Gerontology


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