Predictors of driving outcomes in advancing age

Jamie L. Emerson, Amy M. Johnson, Jeffrey D. Dawson, Ergun Y. Uc, Steven W. Anderson, Matthew Rizzo

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

61 Scopus citations


This study aimed to develop predictive models for real-life driving outcomes in older drivers. Demographics, driving history, on-road driving errors, and performance on visual, motor, and neuropsychological test scores at baseline were assessed in 100 older drivers (ages 65-89 years [72.7]). These variables were used to predict time to driving cessation, first moving violation, or crash. Using Cox proportional hazards regression models, significant individual predictors for driving cessation were greater age and poorer scores on Near Visual Acuity, Contrast Sensitivity, Useful Field of View, Judgment of Line Orientation, Trail Making Test-Part A, Benton Visual Retention Test, Grooved Pegboard, and a composite index of overall cognitive ability. Greater weekly mileage, higher education, and "serious" on-road errors predicted moving violations. Poorer scores from Trail Making Test-Part B or Trail Making Test (B-A) and serious on-road errors predicted crashes. Multivariate models using "off-road" predictors revealed (a) age and Contrast Sensitivity as best predictors for driving cessation; (b) education, weekly mileage, and Auditory Verbal Learning Task-Recall for moving violations; and

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)550-559
Number of pages10
JournalPsychology and aging
Issue number3
StatePublished - 2012
Externally publishedYes


  • Driving cessation
  • Instrumented vehicle
  • Neuropsychological tests
  • Safety errors

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Social Psychology
  • Aging
  • Geriatrics and Gerontology

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