Predictors of mortality for patients undergoing cardiac valve replacements in New York State

Background. The objective of this study was to identify the mortality rates and significant independent risk factors for mortality for each of six valve replacement groups. Methods. A total of 14,190 patients who underwent valve replacement in New York State from 1995 to 1997 were classified into six major groups and significant independent risk factors for inpatient mortality were identified for each of the groups using stepwise logistic regression. Results. Mortality rates ranged from 3.33% for isolated aortic valve surgical procedures to 18.72% for multiple valve replacements with coronary artery bypass graft operations. The number of years in excess of age 55 was a significant multivariate predictor of mortality for all six groups of patients. Shock was a significant predictor for five of the six groups, and in each of those groups it was the risk factor with the highest odds ratio. Conclusions. Significant patient risk factors are relatively consistent across different types of valve replacement procedures. The probability of survival from valve surgical procedures is highly dependent on the patient's preoperative profile and the type of valve operation. (C) 2000 by The Society of Thoracic Surgeons.