Preoperative nomogram to predict risk of perioperative mortality following pancreatic resections for malignancy

Chandrakanth Are, Chantal Afuh, Lavanya Ravipati, Aaron Sasson, Fred Ullrich, Lynette Smith

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

48 Scopus citations

Abstract

Introduction: The majority of pancreatic resections for malignancy are performed in older patients with major comorbidities. The aim of this study was to develop a preoperative nomogram based on the presence of comorbidities to predict risk of perioperative mortality. Materials and Methods: The National Inpatient Sample database was queried to identify patients that underwent pancreatectomy for malignancy. The preoperative comorbidities identified as predictors were used, and a nomogram was created. Sample A (2000-2004) was utilized to develop the model, and sample B (2005) was utilized to validate this model. Results: The overall actual observed perioperative mortality rate for samples A and B was 6.3% and 5.2%, respectively. The mean total points calculated for sample A by the nomogram was 131.7 that translates to a nomogram-predicted mortality rate of 4.9%, which is similar to the actual mortality. The mean total points for sample B was 128.1, which translates to a nomogram-predicted mortality rate of 4.6%. The similarity of mortality rates as predicted by the nomogram and a concordance index of 0.76 shows good agreement between the data and the nomogram. Conclusion: This preoperative nomogram has been shown to accurately predict the risk of perioperative mortality following pancreatectomy for malignancy.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2152-2162
Number of pages11
JournalJournal of Gastrointestinal Surgery
Volume13
Issue number12
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2009

Keywords

  • Malignancy
  • Mortality
  • Nomogram
  • Pancreatectomy

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Surgery
  • Gastroenterology

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