Probabilistic forecasting and the reshaping of flood risk management

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

9 Scopus citations


Advances in probabilistic forecasting, notably based on ensemble prediction systems, are transforming flood risk management. Four trends shaping the assimilation of probabilistic flood forecasting into flood risk management are longer forecasting lead times, advances in decision-making aids, inclusion of probabilistic forecasting in hazard mitigation and collaboration between researchers and managers. Confronting how to use probabilistic flood forecasts to make binary management decisions for reducing flood losses requires developing institutional capacity while acknowledging flood risk estimation is one component of decision making under uncertainty in an evolving policy landscape.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)41-51
Number of pages11
JournalJournal of Natural Resources Policy Research
Issue number1
StatePublished - Jan 2 2015


  • ensemble prediction systems
  • flood forecasting
  • flood risk management
  • probabilistic forecasting
  • uncertainty in decision making
  • water resources management

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law


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