Sensitivity of streamflow to climate change: a case study for Nebraska

A simple water budget model was used to reconstruct streamflow from monthly temperature and precipitation data for the Little Blue River basin in south-central Nebraska. Climate change scenarios corresponding to changes in monthly temperature of 1°C and 3°C and to differences in monthly precipitation of 10% and 20% were used to estimate the sensitivity of streamflow. A 20% increase in precipitation would more than double the average annual streamflow, while a 20% precipitation decrease would almost halve the average annual streamflow. A 3°C increase in temperature results in an almost 60% decrease in streamflow, and a 3°C decrease causes streamflow to increase by more than 80%. Scenarios with both temperature and precipitation changes can either enhance or nullify the effects of a single change. -from Author