The impact of the Berlin Accord and European enlargement on dairy markets

Frank Fuller, John Beghin, Samarendu Mohanty, Jay Fabiosa, Cheng Fang, Phil Kaus

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Scopus citations


Using a world agricultural model, we analyze the impact on dairy markets of the Berlin Accord on the European Union (EU) Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) Reforms. We also investigate the consequences of enlargement of the EU to include the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland for the same markets. We produce a market outlook up to 2010 for these two scenarios. The Berlin Accord induces lower EU milk and dairy prices. A change in relative prices between cheese and butter-skim milk powder (SMP) occurs after 2005 and induces an expansion of cheese production, consumption and exports at the expense of the butter-SMP sector. Accession of the three central and eastern European countries (CEECs) leads to a permanent but moderate decrease in EU prices of milk and dairy products. For the three acceding CEECs, domestic prices increase dramatically. Their final consumption of milk decreases and dairy product consumption drops considerably. The derived demand of milk in dairy production increases, however, because of the higher prices for dairy products, benefiting dairy producers in these CEECs. Dairy exports of the three acceding countries to the EU-15 increase by one to three orders of magnitude, despite building large inventories. The impact of accession on world markets is small.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)117-130
Number of pages14
JournalCanadian Journal of Agricultural Economics
Issue number5
StatePublished - Dec 1999
Externally publishedYes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Global and Planetary Change
  • Ecology
  • Animal Science and Zoology
  • Agronomy and Crop Science
  • Economics and Econometrics


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