The impacts of biofuels targets on land-use change and food supply: A global CGE assessment

Govinda R. Timilsina, John C. Beghin, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Simon Mevel

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

73 Scopus citations

Abstract

We analyze the long-term impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on land-use change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a multi-country, multi-sector global computable general equilibrium model augmented with an explicit land-use module and detailed biofuel sectors. We find that an expansion of biofuel production to meet the existing or even higher targets in various countries would slightly reduce GDP at the global level but with mixed effects across countries or regions. Significant land re-allocation would take place with notable decreases in forest and pasture lands in a few countries. The expansion of biofuels would cause a moderate decrease in world food supply and more significant decreases in developing countries like India and Sub-Saharan Africa. Feedstock commodities (sugar, corn and oil seeds) would experience significant increases in their prices in 2020, but other price changes are small.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)315-332
Number of pages18
JournalAgricultural Economics
Volume43
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - May 2012
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Biodiesel
  • Biofuels
  • CGE model
  • Ethanol
  • Food prices
  • Food supply
  • Impacts
  • Land use

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agronomy and Crop Science
  • Economics and Econometrics

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