The power prior: Theory and applications

Joseph G. Ibrahim, Ming Hui Chen, Yeongjin Gwon, Fang Chen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

175 Scopus citations

Abstract

The power prior has been widely used in many applications covering a large number of disciplines. The power prior is intended to be an informative prior constructed from historical data. It has been used in clinical trials, genetics, health care, psychology, environmental health, engineering, economics, and business. It has also been applied for a wide variety of models and settings, both in the experimental design and analysis contexts. In this review article, we give an A-to-Z exposition of the power prior and its applications to date. We review its theoretical properties, variations in its formulation, statistical contexts for which it has been used, applications, and its advantages over other informative priors. We review models for which it has been used, including generalized linear models, survival models, and random effects models. Statistical areas where the power prior has been used include model selection, experimental design, hierarchical modeling, and conjugate priors. Frequentist properties of power priors in posterior inference are established, and a simulation study is conducted to further examine the empirical performance of the posterior estimates with power priors. Real data analyses are given illustrating the power prior as well as the use of the power prior in the Bayesian design of clinical trials.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)3724-3749
Number of pages26
JournalStatistics in Medicine
Volume34
Issue number28
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 10 2015
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Bayesian design
  • Borrowing
  • Clinical trials
  • Discounting
  • Historical data
  • Informative prior

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Epidemiology
  • Statistics and Probability

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