TY - JOUR
T1 - Trends in malaria in Odisha, India-An analysis of the 2003-2013 time-series data from the national vector borne disease control program
AU - Pradhan, Ashirbad
AU - Anasuya, Anita
AU - Pradhan, Madan Mohan
AU - Kavitha, A. K.
AU - Kar, Priyanka
AU - Sahoo, Krushna Chandra
AU - Panigrahi, Pinaki
AU - Dutta, Ambarish
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 Pradhan et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Copyright:
Copyright 2017 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2016/2
Y1 - 2016/2
N2 - Background: Although Odisha is the largest contributor to the malaria burden in India, no systematic study has examined its malaria trends. Hence, the spatio-temporal trends in malaria in Odisha were assessed against the backdrop of the various anti-malaria strategies implemented in the state. Methods: Using the district-wise malaria incidence and blood examination data (2003-2013) from the National Vector Borne Disease Control Program, blood examination-adjusted time-trends in malaria incidence were estimated and predicted for 2003-2013 and 2014-2016, respectively. An interrupted time series analysis using segmented regression was conducted to compare the disease trends between the pre (2003-2007) and post-intensification (2009-2013) periods. Key-informant interviews of state stakeholders were used to collect the information on the various anti-malaria strategies adopted in the state. Results: The state annual malaria incidence declined from 10.82/1000 to 5.28/1000 during 2003-2013 (adjusted annual decline: -0.54/1000, 95% CI: -0.78 to -0.30). However, the annual blood examination rate remained almost unchanged from 11.25% to 11.77%. The keyinformants revealed that intensification of anti-malaria activities in 2008 led to a more rapid decline in malaria incidence during 2009-2013 as compared to that in 2003-2007 [adjusted decline: -0.83 (-1.30 to -0.37) and -0.27 (-0.41 to -0.13), respectively]. There was a significant difference in the two temporal slopes, i.e., -0.054 (-0.10 to -0.002, p = 0.04) per 1000 population per month, between these two periods, indicating almost a 200% greater decline in the post-intensification period. Although, the seven southern high-burden districts registered the highest decline, they continued to remain in that zone, thereby, making the achievement of malaria elimination (incidence <1/1000) unlikely by 2017. Conclusion: The anti-malaria strategies in Odisha, especially their intensification since 2008, have helped improve its malaria situation in recent years. These successful measures need to be sustained and perhaps intensified further for eliminating malaria from Odisha.
AB - Background: Although Odisha is the largest contributor to the malaria burden in India, no systematic study has examined its malaria trends. Hence, the spatio-temporal trends in malaria in Odisha were assessed against the backdrop of the various anti-malaria strategies implemented in the state. Methods: Using the district-wise malaria incidence and blood examination data (2003-2013) from the National Vector Borne Disease Control Program, blood examination-adjusted time-trends in malaria incidence were estimated and predicted for 2003-2013 and 2014-2016, respectively. An interrupted time series analysis using segmented regression was conducted to compare the disease trends between the pre (2003-2007) and post-intensification (2009-2013) periods. Key-informant interviews of state stakeholders were used to collect the information on the various anti-malaria strategies adopted in the state. Results: The state annual malaria incidence declined from 10.82/1000 to 5.28/1000 during 2003-2013 (adjusted annual decline: -0.54/1000, 95% CI: -0.78 to -0.30). However, the annual blood examination rate remained almost unchanged from 11.25% to 11.77%. The keyinformants revealed that intensification of anti-malaria activities in 2008 led to a more rapid decline in malaria incidence during 2009-2013 as compared to that in 2003-2007 [adjusted decline: -0.83 (-1.30 to -0.37) and -0.27 (-0.41 to -0.13), respectively]. There was a significant difference in the two temporal slopes, i.e., -0.054 (-0.10 to -0.002, p = 0.04) per 1000 population per month, between these two periods, indicating almost a 200% greater decline in the post-intensification period. Although, the seven southern high-burden districts registered the highest decline, they continued to remain in that zone, thereby, making the achievement of malaria elimination (incidence <1/1000) unlikely by 2017. Conclusion: The anti-malaria strategies in Odisha, especially their intensification since 2008, have helped improve its malaria situation in recent years. These successful measures need to be sustained and perhaps intensified further for eliminating malaria from Odisha.
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U2 - 10.1371/journal.pone.0149126
DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0149126
M3 - Article
C2 - 26866696
AN - SCOPUS:84959420616
VL - 11
JO - PLoS One
JF - PLoS One
SN - 1932-6203
IS - 2
M1 - e0149126
ER -